Hugo Chavez, presidente de Chavezuela ex Venezuela, prepara la guerra contra la Libertad y contra Colombia y Peru.

“Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die."

– Herbert Hoover


Venezuela: Chavez Prepares for War with Colombia
Highlights
Chavez tells nation to ‘Prepare for war'
Chavez sends 15,000 troops to the border to allegedly ramp up counter–narcotics efforts
Chavez rhetoric likely intended to distract from domestic controversies concerning high crime and shortages in basic services
On November 8, 2009 Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered his military to ‘Prepare for war' with Colombia, stating the country should be ready should the United States (US) attempt to provoke conflict between the South American neighbors. Tensions along the Venezuela–Colombia shared border have been exacerbated in recent weeks by a series of violent slayings. Chavez's harsh rhetoric has also been particularly heightened surrounding the recent signing of a US–Colombia military base agreement.

We believe Chavez's heated rhetoric is largely an attempt to distract public attention away from pressing domestic issues, notably high crime and weakened energy and water supplies. While we maintain that Chavez does not currently possess the military capacity or the international backing to engage in an offensive against Colombia or the US, we anticipate that Chavez will intensify relations with anti–US regimes, including Iran with the aim of strengthening his military clout in the medium to long–term.

US Base Dealings

On October 30, 2009, the governments of Bogotá and Washington finalized an agreement to lease at least seven military bases throughout the Andean nation, making Colombia a hub for US anti–drug operations in South America. The deal was aimed at replacing similar – although less extensive – base agreements formerly operating out of Manta, Ecuador, until the government terminated the US' 10–year lease there earlier this year.

The Chavez administration has argued that a US air force document presented to the US Congress in May 2009 provides evidence that Washington intends to confront his regime. According to Venezuelan authorities, the document states that one of the bases would provide a “unique opportunity” for “conducting full–spectrum operations throughout South America,” which it describes as a “critical region” under constant threat from “anti–US governments”.

We note that the US has also maintained a similar presence in El Salvador and Aruba–Curacao. We believe Chavez is attempting to play up a renewed US military presence, suggesting American influence in the region would do more harm than good.

Chavez Issues War Warnings on the Radio

On November 5, 2009 Chavez deployed 15,000 troops to the border states of Zulia, Tachira, Apure, Amazonas, and Bolivar, allegedly in order to tighten security efforts against drug trafficking and paramilitary activities. In his order, Chavez stated, “We must prepare ourselves for war and help the people prepare for war, because this is the responsibility of all.”

In his weekly television show, Aló Presidente, President Chavez asked citizens and the military to denounce the agreements between Colombia and the US, warning that the US could use them for an attack on Venezuela. Chavez stated,

“The Empire is more threatening than ever (referring to the US). Don't make a mistake, Mr. Obama, by ordering an attack against Venezuela by way of Colombia."

We note that Chavez has repeatedly accused Washington of attempting to collapse his government in order to seize Venezuelan oil reserves. Colombia retaliated that it would submit an appeal over Chavez's ‘warmongering' to the UN Security Council and the Organization of American States.

Smokescreen

While Chavez has touted that confrontation asserted by Colombia or the US would provoke a “regional” and “over 100–year war,” we believe that Chavez still lacks the backing to fulfill his claims. The Brazilian Senate, which this week is expected to vote on the entry of Venezuela into Mercosur, stated that Chavez's war claims are ''certainly a factor that can greatly complicate the vote.'' One critical senator argued that the threats were “another sign that Chavez's intentions are burning the region.”

We believe Chavez's build up at the border with Colombia is largely an attempt to distract public attention away from pressing domestic issues, notably crime, energy and water supplies. Compulsory cuts in water and electricity supplies began on November 2, 2009 in Caracas and other areas of Venezuela. Despite Chavez's claims that the shortages are the result of “capitalism,” many officials claim the crisis is due to a combination of factors, including global warming, surging demand, and insufficient supplies due to decades of inadequate infrastructure investment and maintenance.

We note that Chavez nationalized a number of public services in 2007, including the country's vast electrical grid – the moves showed few signs of improving the efficiency associated with each or a tangible benefit to the people of Venezuela. We believe, based in part on those investment failures, that Chavez is likely distracting rising public dissatisfaction with fears of war and militarization.

Regardless of Chavez's claims, we believe that Venezuela's offensive capabilities remain too weak to perpetuate any sizeable confrontation with Colombia. We do assert, however, that Chavez will continue developing relationships with anti–US powers, including Iran and Russia, in order to achieve a greater military capability in the long–term..